By Ambassador Abdullahi Aliyu Jibiya
In 2018, seven scholars of the Strategic Space Applications Department of the National Space Research and Development Agency (NSRDA) conducted a seminal study that assessed rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration variability in Katsina state. The study proved “significant increases in rate of evapotranspiration and temperature while there appeared to be a reduction in the amount of rainfall in Katsina state” over a thirty-three-year period (1983-2016). Furthermore, the study showed a “steady decrease in rainfall, evapotranspiration, temperature rise and aridity from the Southern Katsina state towards the Northern part of the state”.
The NSRDA scholars blamed the situation on human activities that include tree logging, bush burning and conversion of forested area to agricultural land. Another set of three scholars of Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, presented a study conducted that agreed with the NSRDA scholars and attributed the probable cause of the reduced rainfall to human activity. FALAKI, AHMED and AKPU (2019) demonstrated a link between “considerable decrease in vegetation and an increase in desertification”. Their study showed that from 1990 – 2000, about 17.8% of Jibiya Local Government Area was affected by desertification. The rate increased from 2000 - 2015 “where more than 100% of the total land area was affected at the rate of 8.0% annually”, bringing land area affected by desertification in the Local Government to 277.4 sqkm.
Other studies conducted by DFID scholars are emphatic on the effects of vegetation (and its loss) on rainfall pattern in West Africa through a process called transpiration. As air masses cross the continent, they pick up additional moisture from forests, which then leads to more rain several hundred kilometres further downwind. Additionally, by controlling the balance between heating and moistening of the atmosphere, the vegetation can affect the winds bringing moist air off the ocean, delaying or extending the rainy seasons which characterise tropical climate. The scholars used computer models from 1996 - 2022 to detect areas of West Africa where deforestation has changed rainfall patterns, and how in other places, the rapid greening of the savannah each year affects the rains. The results were alarming but not surprising. Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto States were the most deforested and lost the highest amounts of rainfall.
Multiplication of Woes
Combined with population explosion, the effect of decreased rainfall on the productivity on the economy of Katsina State is also well documented. Various scholars have written on the effects of climate change on low crop yields, difficulties herders faced in feeding domestic animals, hunger and despondency among youths leading to worsened poverty levels, migration and multiple security problems that sometimes snowball into national and regional nuisances. Scholars have also written multitudes of papers on mitigation strategies. Hundreds of Non-Governmental organizations have focussed training attention on the end beneficiaries of afforestation – the farmers. And the problem continues.
In the most affected areas of Katsina State, the targets are no longer trees but their roots. Shrubs – "Geza" and "Sabara" – that cover the landscape and provide protection for the soil against the other elements (wind, flood, fire) are cut down and razed with relish.
Katsina-Jibiya Road - January 2023
The atmosphere continues to heat up and rain continues to recede; food shortages are reported every year; poverty levels rise; tempers continue to flare between herders and farmers; youths escape the villages and attempt to eke out living in the cities where they are hunted, imprisoned and expelled. Politicians would promise heaven and earth and after years in power, are unable to provide solutions.
Is anybody conscious of this loss? Until a few decades ago, not a leaf would fall in the forest without the vigilant eyes of Sarkin-Dawa noticing it. Together with other representatives of the Emir who assist him in taking care of the forest (Sarkin-Bindiga, Sarkin-Baka, Baushe, etc), he ensures that nobody cuts down a tree without replacement. When the Dasuki Reforms of 1976 took away the care of the forest from traditional rulers, the function was reduced to issuing permits to cut down trees. State Governments later took the job from Local Governments and, today, it is everybody’s job that nobody is performing. Can we continue to assume that all is well when it is not? Can we continue to assume that things will take care of themselves without any effort from us? Should we explore the solutions? I think we should.